The Central Valley at a Crossroads: Migration and Its Implications

Examines recent trends in domestic and international migration flows, population growth, and changes in the region's socioeconomic profile. Looks at policy strategies used by each valley subregion to address challenges presented by recent migration

From market games to real-world markets

This paper uses the development of multi-agent market models to present a unified approach to the joint questions of how financial market movements may be simulated, predicted, and hedged against. We examine the effect of different market clearing mechanisms and show that an out-of-equilibrium clearing process leads to dynamics that closely resemble real financial movements. We then show that replacing the `synthetic' price history used by these simulations with data taken from real financial time-series leads to the remarkable result that the agents can collectively learn to identify moments in the market where profit is attainable. We then employ the formalism of Bouchaud and Sornette in conjunction with agent based models to show that in general risk cannot be eliminated from trading with these models. We also show that, in the presence of transaction costs, the risk of option writing is greatly increased. This risk, and the costs, can however be reduced through the use of a delta-hedging strategy with modified, time-dependent volatility structure.Comment: Presented at APFA2 (Liege) July 2000. Proceedings: Eur. Phys. J. B Latex file + 10 .ps figs. [email protected]

Child Poverty in Rural America

This report explores the well-being of the 14 million children who live in rural America. Rural families represent a significant share of our total population and they are disproportionately poor, less educated, and underemployed. Yet poor children and the unique challenges they face are often overlooked by policymakers. Poor children living in rural America face significant educational, social, and economic challenges just as their urban counterparts do, but many of these problems are exacerbated by the isolation and limited access to support services common in rural areas

Mixed population Minority Game with generalized strategies

We present a quantitative theory, based on crowd effects, for the market volatility in a Minority Game played by a mixed population. Below a critical concentration of generalized strategy players, we find that the volatility in the crowded regime remains above the random coin-toss value regardless of the "temperature" controlling strategy use. Our theory yields good agreement with numerical simulations.Comment: Revtex file + 3 figure

Sampling design for compliance monitoring of surface water quality: A case study in a Polder area

International agreements such as the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) ask for efficient sampling methods for monitoring natural resources. In this paper a general methodology for designing efficient, statistically sound monitoring schemes is described. An important decision is the choice between a design-based and a model-based method, implying the choice between probability (random) sampling and purposive sampling. For mapping purposes, model-based methods are more appropriate, whereas to obtain valid results for the universe as a whole, such as in testing water quality standards against legal standards, we generally prefer a design-based method. Four basic sampling patterns in space-time universe are described: static, synchronous, static-synchronous, and rotational. A case study is carried out for monitoring the quality of surface water at two farms in western Netherlands, wherein a synchronous sampling design is applied, with stratified simple random sampling in both space and time. To reduce laboratory costs the aliquots taken at the locations of a given sampling round are bulked to form a composite. To test the spatiotemporal mean N-total concentration during the summer half-year against the MAR standard with a power of 80% at a concentration 15% below the MAR standard and with a confidence of 95%, six to nine sampling rounds are needed with 50 to 75 locations per sampling round. For P-total the required number of sampling rounds differs strongly between the two farms, but is for both farms much larger than for N-total

Peak wind speed anemometers /maxometer/ Final report, 26 Mar. 1969 - 25 May 1970

Fabrication and testing of peak wind speed recording devic

Using Intelligent Agents to Manage Business Processes

This paper describes work undertaken in the ADEPT (Advanced Decision Environment for Process Tasks) project towards developing an agent-based infrastructure for managing business processes. We describe how the key technology of negotiating, service providing, autonomous agents was realised and demonstrate how this was applied to the BT business process of providing a customer quote for network services